Disruptive Technology and Exponential Change - Our World is Experiencing Exponential Change

“You say you want a revolution—“ these are more than just Beatles lyrics. Today, it’s a way of life in the technology world. And according to Drew Carter, president of Maritz Motivation Solutions in St. Louis, that’s the way it is going to be for the foreseeable future.

Carter presented his remarks to a packed house at the ACG KC breakfast meeting on June 7. He concentrated on a few industries where he sees exponential growth occurring in the next few years, beginning with the power industry.

Disruption was the word Carter used more than revolution, but the fact remains that the frantic pace of change we experience now isn’t going away.

“Solar will be the power source for most applications by 2030,” Carter said.

Another industry where disruption will be seen and felt by nearly everyone in the next few years is the automotive sector, Carter stressed. Electric vehicles are going to overtake traditional internal combustion engine vehicles on the road.

“Before 2030, electric vehicles will be the only new passenger cars sold,” he said. “Autonomous versions of electric vehicles will be widespread before 2030.”

“Tesla, Renault, Volvo, GM and others expect level four autonomy for their vehicles by 2021. They will beat that.”

Carter said in the future many people won’t own cars. Instead, they will be buying into a car club of sorts. When you need a car, you will call for one, pick it up, use it, return it and go on with your day.

“Currently, cars in the United States are used just four percent of the time,” he said. “The rest of the time they sit in your driveway, in a parking lot or garage or somewhere else.”

Much of Carter’s presentation centered on how computers are a part of the disruption we are experiencing. From augmented reality to artificial intelligence to 3-D printing bringing the world of mass production to the desktop, computers, already ubiquitous in our lives, are coming closer to taking over even more aspects.

He cited the recent Pokémon phenomenon as an example of what will become more normal­—only instead of mapping cartoon characters, we will be making a map of the world in real time.

China will be likely be the dominant AI provider to the world, Carter said. Already, the country leads the planet in use of mobile payments.

“It’s virtually impossible to use cash in China,” Carter said. “In 2016, Americans made more than $112 billion worth of mobile payments. In China, there were more than $9 trillion made that same year.”

There is little in the way of computers continuing to dominate our world, he said.

“Regulation is a little speed bump,” he said. “What could stop the progression of machines getting smarter and smarter? I don’t know.”